Was the Iraq War Worth It?

Is it too early to answer this question?

In my mind there are really only two logical and coherent answers to this question:  No and maybe.  Let me explain both.  Those who don’t believe that the Iraq War was worthwhile have several justifications.  They include:

• Iraq had no weapons of mass destruction
• Iraq had no significant link to the 9/11 attacks
• The overwhelming cost in human lives and dollars spent
• The irreparable damage to America’s standing in the world

First, the American citizens were sold a “false bill of goods”.  That is to say weapons of mass destruction were the selling point used by the Bush Administration to convince the American people of supporting the war.  As it turned out, there were absolutely no weapons of mass destruction.  There is some controversy as to how ignorant certain members of the Bush Administration were to this point to begin with.  It’s difficult to know.  Many liberals think that the Administration’s use of weapons of mass destruction was really a red herring; that it was a conspiracy to secure more oil.  I have a hard time completely believing that.  My guess is that most people in Bush’s cabinet believed that there were weapons of mass destruction, but that if American troops didn’t find them that would be alright because there were other justifications for the war.  Just my guess. 

Second, Saddam Hussein and the country of Iraq had virtually no ties to the men the hijacked the planes on September 11^th.  The men, who were affiliated with Al-Qaeda were not from Iraq.  They were Saudi Arabian, Egyptian, Lebanese and United Arab Emirati.  In fact, Hussien’s link to Al-Qaeda was weak at best. 

Third, the cost in lives and dollars has been immense.  Nearly 4,500 Americans have died in the eight years of fighting in Iraq.  Thirty thousand Americans have been wounded.  The U.S. has spent nearly $1 trillion in Iraq since 2003.  That’s startling.  Moreover, as with many wars, senior Bush Administration officials undersold the cost of the war dramatically.  For example, in a March 16, 2003 Meet the Press interview of Vice President Dick Cheney, held less than a week before the Iraq War began, host Tim Russert reported that "every analysis said this war itself would cost about $80 billion, recovery of Baghdad, perhaps of Iraq, about $10 billion per year. We should expect as American citizens that this would cost at least $100 billion for a two-year involvement.”  History is filled with wars that have cost more than was originally thought. 

Fourth, by acting relatively unilaterally the U.S. damaged its reputation in the world.  Though much more difficult to quantify than deaths and dollars, the first decade of the twenty-first century was an extremely transformative one.  Unfortunately, many of these changes have been relative declines for the United States.  One of these is the collision of declining world opinion of the U.S. and globalization.  Now other countries don’t need to look to the U.S. for leadership (relatively speaking!) as they once did. 

With all of this being said, how could one argue that the Iraq War might be worth it?

Here’s how:  For centuries the Middle East has been relatively stable.  Don’t confuse stability with high quality of life, however.  Dictators have essentially ruled their countries without any problem from outside forces (there are obviously several exceptions) and certainly not from their own citizens.  This stability has destroyed human capital in the region and thus the conditions were right to produce terrorism.  So, the attacks on September 11^th happen, Saddam Hussein is overthrown and there are rudimentary elections in Iraq. 

Eight years after the U.S. invasion Iraq clearly has turmoil.  There’s no denying that, even if you’re the staunchest of supporters of the war.  This turmoil could lead to something worse, but possibly something better. Fifty years from now historians might see that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq was one of the catalysts for positive change in the region.  Perhaps turmoil that was a result of overthrowing Saddam, the subsequent Iraqi elections, and getting rid of the Taliban will have helped lead to getting rid of Mubarak, Gadhafi and others.  As I mentioned earlier, this is the argument that one could make.  It’s necessary to note that the revolutions in Egypt and Libya that rid these countries of their dictators happened at a very specific point in history.  Globalization and the Information Revolution have collided to produce the perfect powder keg of conditions for these revolutions.  Those who make the argument that the Iraq might have been worth it would like to include Saddam’s overthrow as one of the ingredients that created the right historical conditions for the Arab Spring.  You can be the judge of that. 

In the end, history will have to judge if the Iraq War was worth its costs.  Right now, I think the evidence clearly shows that it wasn’t.  The lack of WMDs, Iraq’s tenuous link to Al-Qaeda, loss of American and Iraqi lives and the world’s declined opinion of the U.S. all point to this being a bad decision from the beginning.  I suppose there is the possibility that the messy and complicated turmoil that currently constitutes Iraq could resolve itself into something better than what existed prior to 2003. For our sake and the world’s I hope it does.

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The Takeaway:  No, the Iraq War probably wasn’t worth it, though I desperately hope history proves us wrong.